Market perspectives (2024)

United States

Inflation isn’t yet on a sustainable path toward the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month in April. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained elevated, at 3.6% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.

  • Another closely watched indicator, retail sales volumes, changed little in April compared with March. The pace of sales matters, and Vanguard will watch this indicator closely. But we continue to believe the U.S. consumer remains resilient and will be a catalyst for growth, as this recent article discusses.
  • On top of a greater-than-expected rise in producer prices (0.50% month-over-month) in April, the data underscore our view that the Fed won’t likely be in position to cut its monetary policy interest rate target (currently, 5.25%–5.50%) this year.
  • We recently increased our forecast for 2024 core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation from 2.6% to 2.9%. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure to guide policymaking,
  • We continue to foresee full-year 2024 economic growth slightly above trend around 2.0%.

For the last decade-plus, a lack of both automation and new general-purpose technologies (GPTs) have weighed on U.S. economic growth. But new Vanguard research suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) will prove to be the next GPT, powering above-trend growth. Our forthcoming megatrends research paper, due for release in June, discusses the importance of GPTs in driving periods of above-trend growth over the last 130-plus years.

“If the AI impact approaches that of electricity, our base case is that [productivity] growth will offset demographic pressures, producing an economic and financial future that exceeds consensus expectations,” Joe Davis, Vanguard global chief economist and the lead researcher, writes in this recent commentary.

The new research harnesses a uniquely long and rich dataset that captures historical shifts in megatrends that have driven about 60% of the change in per capita GDP growth. It finds that, among megatrends that also include demographics, fiscal deficits, and globalization, only technology has been a consistent, powerful driver of not only growth but also the Federal Reserve’s nominal target for short-term interest rates, inflation, and stock market valuations.

Market perspectives (2024)

FAQs

What is the perspective of the market? ›

The Market Perspective communicates a point of view and guidance on a topic or a technology vendor related to the firm's areas of market knowledge.

Are markets efficient or inefficient? ›

In reality, most markets do display some level of inefficiencies, and in the extreme case an inefficient market can be an example of a market failure. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds that in an efficiently working market, asset prices always accurately reflect the asset's true value.

What is the evidence of market inefficiency? ›

An indicator of an inefficient market is when a specific security price at any particular time does not reflect its true value.

How will the market react to a rate hike? ›

When interest rates are rising, both businesses and consumers will cut back on spending. This will cause earnings to fall and stock prices to drop. On the other hand, when interest rates have fallen significantly, consumers and businesses will increase spending, causing stock prices to rise.

What are marketing perspectives? ›

Marketing Perspectives develops beyond the core concepts of marketing to introduce important points of view on contemporary marketing. Areas include some of the most significant and fast growing sectors of the developed economy, such as: Digital marketing. The experience economy and services marketing.

What are the 4 types of markets? ›

Economic market structures can be grouped into four categories: perfect competition, monopolistic competition, oligopoly, and monopoly.

Can a market be truly efficient? ›

In a truly efficient market, the prices of securities reflect all relevant information about the asset, including historical data such as price, volume and more.

What makes markets efficient? ›

Market efficiency refers to how well prices reflect all available information. The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) argues that markets are efficient, leaving no room to make excess profits by investing since everything is already fairly and accurately priced.

Which type of market is the most efficient? ›

Intuitively, perfectly competitive markets seem the best equipped to manage this, since, in the long run, the absence of firms with market power and the availability of perfect information mean that price equals marginal cost (the condition for allocative efficiency) and production is capped at the point where average ...

What violates market efficiency? ›

Studies of market efficiency often consider trading costs, and serious violations of efficiency are usually considered to be those that are observed on an after-cost basis. The costs of investing in funds can be substantial.

How to identify market inefficiencies? ›

How do you identify market inefficiencies? Market inefficiencies are identified by situations where the benefits don't equal the costs or the optimal outcome has not been achieved.

What can be done to correct market inefficiency? ›

Market failure can be caused by a lack of information, market control, public goods, and externalities. Market failures can be corrected through government intervention, such as new laws or taxes, tariffs, subsidies, and trade restrictions.

What is the stock market prediction for 2024? ›

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

Who benefits from high interest rates? ›

With profit margins that actually expand as rates climb, entities like banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms, and money managers generally benefit from higher interest rates. Central bank monetary policies and the Fed's reserver ratio requirements also impact banking sector performance.

What stocks do well when interest rates fall? ›

Cyclical stock sectors

The consumer discretionary, technology, real estate, and financial sectors have historically been especially likely to outperform the market when rates fall and earnings rise. Financial stocks look particularly appealing, due to how inexpensive they've recently been.

What is market perception? ›

Market perception is essentially the overall consumer attitude towards your brand, taking into consideration the products, service experience, and even how your company fares compared to your competitors. Brand image and market perception work hand in hand with one another.

What is a market based perspective? ›

The market-based view (MBV), alternatively known as the market positioning view) emphasizes the role of market conditions in developing strategy for the firm. This contrasts with the resource-based view (RBV) which focuses on the firm's resources and capabilities.

What is the main idea of the market? ›

market, a means by which the exchange of goods and services takes place as a result of buyers and sellers being in contact with one another, either directly or through mediating agents or institutions. Markets in the most literal and immediate sense are places in which things are bought and sold.

What is the perspective of the business? ›

The Business Perspective defines the business level view of the system. The various viewpoints defined show how people (actors) interact with processes at various locations within the business, and the things they handle and use (business entities).

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