US Recession Probability Monthly Insights: US Recession Probabilities - Estrella and Mishkin (2024)

FAQs

What is the probability of the US recession? ›

Basic Info. US Recession Probability is at 51.82%, compared to 50.04% last month and 70.85% last year.

By May 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 51.82 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession.

After global growth exceeded expectations in 2023, businesses' perceived probability of a global recession has fallen substantially in 2024, according to Oxford Economics data. Oxford's global risk survey in January showed a recession probability of 7.2% — less than half of what it was in October 2023.

The probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months has remained unchanged since the beginning of this year, but at 25%-30% it remains elevated relative to our baseline comparison since World War II.

3. How long do recessions last? The good news is that recessions generally haven't lasted very long. Our analysis of 11 cycles since 1950 shows that recessions have persisted between two and 18 months, with the average spanning about 10 months.

The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief US economist said. The economic data seems strong but is hinting at signs of a decline, as seen in the latest jobs report. Credit-card delinquency rates are also on the rise, and retail sales data has shown a drop in activity.

Economist Claudia Sahm has shown that when the unemployment rate's three-month average is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, the economy is in recession.

Overall, we expect the US economy to post real GDP growth of 2.4% this year, but for growth to slow to 1.1% in 2025. Between 2026 and 2028, economic growth is expected to pick back up, with annual gains in real GDP forecasted to range between 1.6% and 1.9% per year.

Since the end of World War II, the U.S has suffered through 12 recessions, or an average of one every 6.5 years. The last economic expansion, starting at the end of the Great Recession, lasted 128 months.

A recession was feared by most analysts in 2023, but was ultimately avoided. Now, a number of experts agree that the country might be headed towards a soft landing (a period when the economy slows down but does not enter a recession) or a mild recession in 2024.

Is the US recession imminent? ›

Though the economy occasionally sputtered in 2022, it has certainly been resilient — and now, near the end of the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. is still not currently in a recession, according to a traditional definition.

“The American economy is not in a silent depression. It's not even in a depression at all,” House said. “When we came into 2023, many economists thought we might slide into a recession over the course of the year, but growth in goods and services and in trade have all remained far stronger than we anticipated.”

The last time the U.S. experienced a recession was in 2020. But that was a relatively short recession. The biggest recession in U.S. history sparked the Great Depression, between 1929 and 1933, though the Great Recession (2007-2009) was the worst in modern times.

Recessions reduce opportunities: failed businesses, fewer jobs, and lower wages. Recessions normally don't happen every year, but they're not unusual.

Recessions reduce opportunities: failed businesses, fewer jobs, and lower wages. Recessions normally don't happen every year, but they're not unusual.

The COVID-19 recession was the shortest on record, while the Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the deepest since the downturn in 1937-1938.

According to Fathom's Global Outlook, Spring 2024, advanced economies will avoid recession over the forecast horizon (which goes up to the end of 2026), with the global economy showing resilience against inflation and high interest rates.