Do high-yield bonds do well in recession?
High-yield corporate bonds
High yield bonds: High yield or junk bonds usually pay a higher yield and carry a higher credit risk because they are issued by municipalities or companies with a greater risk of defaulting. So during a recession, the price of high yield or junk bonds generally falls.
Treasury Bonds
Treasury prices tend to rise as demand surges, providing capital appreciation for investors. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policies during recessions often involve lowering interest rates, boosting the value of existing Treasury bonds.
Key takeaways. High-yield bonds may offer greater yield and return potential than investment-grade bonds, in exchange for higher credit risk. The overall credit quality of the high-yield universe has been improving in recent years and is at historically strong levels.
Positive Signals for Future Returns
At the beginning of 2024, bond yields, the rate of return they generate for investors, were near post-financial crisis highs1—and for fixed-income, yields have historically served as a good proxy for future returns.
The short answer is bonds tend to be less volatile than stocks and often perform better during recessions than other financial assets.
Do Bonds Lose Money in a Recession? Bonds can perform well in a recession as investors tend to flock to bonds rather than stocks in times of economic downturns. This is because stocks are riskier as they are more volatile when markets are not doing well.
As investors start to anticipate a recession, they may flee to the relative safety of bonds. Typically, they're expecting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, helping to keep bond prices up. So going into a recession may be an attractive time to purchase bonds if rates haven't yet fallen.
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
CDs are an excellent place to park your cash and earn interest on your balance. Although there's a risk of inflation outpacing CD interest rates, they are virtually guaranteed earnings. Bonds, on the other hand, may deliver higher returns and regular income via interest payments.
Are high-yield bonds too risky?
Yes, high-yield corporate bonds are more volatile and, therefore, riskier than investment-grade and government-issued bonds. However, these securities can also provide significant advantages when analyzed in-depth. It all comes down to money.
A high-yield corporate bond is a type of corporate bond that offers a higher rate of interest because of its higher risk of default. When companies with a greater estimated default risk issue bonds, they may be unable to obtain an investment-grade bond credit rating.
Meketa Investment Group recommends that most diversified long-term pools consider allocating to high yield bonds, and if they do so, between five and ten percent of total assets in favorable markets, and maintaining a toehold investment even in adverse environments to permit rapid re-allocation should valuations shift.
Historically, the US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on April 22 of 2024.
Investor takeaway: We're still cautious on high-yield bonds, but acknowledge that if a recession is avoided, high-yield bonds may still perform well despite low spreads. Over the short run, expect volatility and potential price declines as defaults continue to pile up.
Relatively low duration – One reason high yield bonds often have relatively low duration is that they tend to have shorter maturities; they are typically issued with terms of 10 years or less and are often callable after four or five years.
Where to put money during a recession. Putting money in savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs keeps your money safe in an FDIC-insured bank account (or NCUA-insured credit union account). Alternatively, invest in the stock market with a broker.
Because a decline in disposable income affects prices, the prices of essentials, such as food and utilities, often stay the same. In contrast, things considered to be wants instead of needs, such as travel and entertainment, may be more likely to get cheaper.
During economic downturns or recessions, many investors turn to funds that focus on the consumer staples sector or large-cap companies (companies with a stock market value of $10 billion or more) that tend to generate more stable returns than small-cap companies.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
Will bonds outperform stocks in 2024?
Bond outlooks improve, but stocks' prospects drop on the heels of 2023′s rally. Better things lie ahead for bonds, but the prospects for stocks, especially U.S. equities, are less rosy.
When the crisis hit, junk bond yield prices fell and thus their yields skyrocketed. The yield-to-maturity (YTM) for high-yield or speculative-grade bonds rose by over 20% during this time with the results being the all-time high for junk bond defaults, with the average market rate going as high as 13.4% by Q3 of 2009.
For investors, “cash is king during a recession” sums up the advantages of keeping liquid assets on hand when the economy turns south. From weathering rough markets to going all-in on discounted investments, investors can leverage cash to improve their financial positions.
Many people who owned stocks that went down a lot would have been OK eventually, except they bought on margin and were ruined. The best performing investments during the Depression were government bonds (many corporations stopped paying interest on their bonds) and annuities.
Municipal bonds, like all bonds, pose interest rate risk. The longer the term of the bond, the greater the risk. If interest rates rise during the term of your bond, you're losing out on a better rate. This will also cause the bond you are holding to decline in value.
