Should I pull my investments before a recession?
As companies cut back and job losses mount, “it's better to be safe than sorry and beef up cash reserves during times of high employment.” However, selling investments to get cash in anticipation of a recession is risky. You might sell prematurely and get trapped in cash as markets rise.
Moving your portfolio from stocks to cash is an understandable instinct when savings rates are high and there are concerns about a possible recession. But it's important to remember that stock market investments are part of your long-term plan, and selling could have tax implications.
This may seem obvious, but it's best to avoid withdrawing large amounts from your portfolio during a recession. When stock values have declined, selling shares to cover everyday living expenses can meaningfully eat into your portfolio's long-term growth potential.
- Take stock of your finances.
- Build your emergency fund.
- Create a budget.
- Keep your cash where it's rewarded.
- Eliminate variable-rate and high-cost debt.
- Think twice before eliminating other debt.
- Don't change your investing strategy.
If you're looking to invest for your future -- five, 10, or 40 years from now -- now is as good a time as ever to buy stocks. Despite ongoing recession fears, it's important to remember the market is forward-looking. Stock values are based on future expected earnings.
It becomes a bit more important to focus on top-quality companies in turbulent times, but, for the most part, you should approach investing in a recession in the same manner you would approach investing any other time. Buy high-quality companies or funds and hold on to them for as long as they stay that way.
Cash equivalents include short-term, highly liquid assets with minimal risk, such as Treasury bills, money market funds and certificates of deposit. Money market funds and high-yield savings are also places to salt away cash in a downturn.
What businesses are profitable in a recession? Many investors turn to stocks in companies that sell consumer staples like health care, food and beverages, and personal hygiene products. These businesses typically remain profitable during recessions and their share prices tend to better resist stock market sell-offs.
For investors, “cash is king during a recession” sums up the advantages of keeping liquid assets on hand when the economy turns south. From weathering rough markets to going all-in on discounted investments, investors can leverage cash to improve their financial positions.
It's safe from the stock market: If a recession causes short-term market volatility, you won't lose money on your high-yield savings deposits, unlike investing in the stock market.
What not to do before a recession?
Avoid becoming a co-signer on a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt. Don't quit your job if you aren't prepared for a long search for a new one. If you own your own business, consider postponing spending on capital improvements and taking on new debt until the recovery has begun.
During an economic downturn, it's crucial to control your spending. Try to avoid taking on new debt you don't need, like a house or car. Look critically at smaller expenses, too — there's no reason to keep paying for things you don't use.
Cash, large-cap stocks and gold can be good investments during a recession. Stocks that tend to fluctuate with the economy and cryptocurrencies can be unstable during a recession.
Cash: Offers liquidity, allowing you to cover expenses or seize investment opportunities. Property: Can provide rental income and potential long-term appreciation, but selling might be difficult during an economic downturn.
Lower prices — A recession often hits after a long period of sky-high consumer prices. At the onset of a recession, these prices suddenly drop, balancing out previous long inflationary costs. As a result, people on fixed incomes can benefit from new, lower prices, including real estate sales.
That's because markets usually top out before the start of recessions and bottom out before their conclusion. In other words, the worst is over for stocks before it's over for the rest of the economy. In almost every case, the S&P 500 has bottomed out roughly four months before the end of a recession.
Those with retirement quickly approaching may want to consider rolling any of their old 401(k) accounts into either IRAs (which offer more investment options) or annuities (which can provide a set rate of return during uncertain times).
Build up your emergency fund, pay off your high interest debt, do what you can to live within your means, diversify your investments, invest for the long term, be honest with yourself about your risk tolerance, and keep an eye on your credit score.
The result? When the market rebounded, Getty was a rich man, thanks to his action when the economy appeared to be at its worst. The same thing happened to people like Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon, and Carl Icahn during the Great Recession of 2008. Each zigged when the rest of the world zagged.
Generally, the industries known to fare better during recessions are those that supply the population with essentials we cannot live without that. They include utilities, health care, consumer staples, and, in some pundits' opinions, maybe even technology.
What stocks do worst in a recession?
Equity Sectors
On the negative side, energy and infrastructure stocks have been the hardest-hit in recent recessions. Companies in these sectors are acutely sensitive to swings in demand. Financials stocks also can suffer during recessions because of a rising default rate and shrinking net interest margins.
You should consider buying economically resilient or defensive stocks before a recession. These include healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, and cost-conscious retail companies. Demand for the products and services provided by these companies tends to hold up relatively well during a recession.
GOBankingRates consulted quite a few finance experts and asked them this question. They all said the same thing: You need three to six months' worth of living expenses in an easily accessible savings account. The exact amount of cash needed depends on one's income tier and cost of living.
That should include a little cash stashed in the house, enough to cover the monthly bills in a checking account, and enough to cover an emergency in a savings account. For the emergency stash, most financial experts set an ambitious goal at the equivalent of six months of income.
Cash and cash equivalents can provide liquidity, portfolio stability and emergency funds. Cash equivalent securities include savings, checking and money market accounts, and short-term investments. A general rule of thumb is that cash and cash equivalents should comprise between 2% and 10% of your portfolio.
