Should you buy bonds when interest rates are high?
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
When interest rates rise, bond prices go down in value. Most bonds pay a fixed coupon (i.e. interest payment) and if rates go up, the only way a fixed coupon can equate to a higher interest rate is if the investor pays less for the bond.
Waiting for the Fed to cut rates before considering longer term bonds isn't our preferred approach. The bond market is forward-looking and long-term Treasury yields typically decline once investors believe that rate cuts are coming.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
I bonds' rates have since dipped from their headline-grabbing heights—they were as high as 9.62% in May of 2022—to 5.27% for the current crop. That rate may still look attractive, but I bonds' variable rates—combined with their five-year lockup period—may give you pause.
As inflation finally seems to be coming under control, and growth is slowing as the global economy feels the full impact of higher interest rates, 2024 could be a compelling year for bonds.
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
Yields Might Not Keep Up With Inflation
Bondholders also need to consider inflation risk—the risk that rising prices will decrease the value of the fixed income you receive from the bond.
Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market. If your goal for investing in bonds is to reduce portfolio risk and volatility, it's best not to wait.
Key Takeaways
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
Is 2024 a good time to purchase interest-sensitive securities?
Credit spreads remain very tight, and the yield you can earn when adjusted for duration favors high-quality intermediate bonds. So, investors are not really being paid to take on credit or interest rate risk.” Others have said that 2024 might be the time to invest toward the longer end of the risk-return spectrum.
Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
Bonds with shorter times to maturity are less sensitive to changes in interest rates than longer-term bonds, meaning investors won't suffer as much if rates head higher. Remember, interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions, so as rates rise, bond prices fall and vice versa.
If you're investing for the long term, a U.S. savings bond is a good choice. The Series I savings bond has a variable rate that can give the investor the benefit of future interest rate increases. If you're saving for the short term, a CD offers greater flexibility than a savings bond.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $109.52 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $219.04 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $547.60 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $1,095.20 |
Bottom line. I bonds, with their inflation-adjusted return, safeguard the investor's purchasing power during periods of high inflation. On the other hand, EE Bonds offer predictable returns with a fixed-interest rate and a guaranteed doubling of value if held for 20 years.
In 2024 we remain positive on the credit market, anticipating strong total returns and continued demand from yield and duration buyers. Investors are looking to add high-quality duration and to move away from short-maturity investment solutions, made less attractive by major central banks' expected interest rate cuts.
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
The United States 10 Years Government Bond Yield is expected to be 4.663% by the end of September 2024.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
What happens if bond market crashes?
So, if the bond market declines or crashes, your investment account will likely feel it in some way. This can be especially concerning for investors with portfolios heavily weighted toward bonds, such as those in or near retirement.
One says that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should equal 100 minus your age. So, if you're 30, such a portfolio would contain 70% stocks and 30% bonds (or other safe investments). If you're 60, it might be 40% stocks and 60% bonds.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
I bonds protect you from inflation because when inflation increases, the combined rate increases. Because inflation can go up or down, we can have deflation (the opposite of inflation). Deflation can bring the combined rate down below the fixed rate (as long as the fixed rate itself is not zero).
Securities purchased through TreasuryDirect cannot be sold in the secondary market before they mature. This lack of liquidity could be a disadvantage for investors who may need to access their investment capital before the securities' maturity.
