Why do bond funds keep losing money?
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
Because bond funds do not have a defined maturity date, and the investor chooses when to purchase and when to sell, as prices fluctuate due to interest rate changes and other factors, it is possible that an investor may receive less principal back than initially invested.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds. High-quality bond investments remain attractive.
We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.
The disadvantages of bond funds include higher management fees, the uncertainty created with tax bills, and exposure to interest rate changes.
Why interest rates affect bonds. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
Expecting another strong year in 2024
Following large front-loaded new issue supply, EM IG spreads are now at attractive levels versus U.S. credit, setting up EM debt for outperformance. Our 2024 macroeconomic base case features slowing inflation and growth cushioned by Fed rate cuts.
Why is bond not a good investment?
Call risk is the likelihood that a bond's term will be cut short by the issuer if interest rates fall. Default risk is the chance that the issuer will be unable to meet its financial obligations. Inflation risk is the possibility that inflation will erode the value of a fixed-price bond issue.
CDs are an excellent place to park your cash and earn interest on your balance. Although there's a risk of inflation outpacing CD interest rates, they are virtually guaranteed earnings. Bonds, on the other hand, may deliver higher returns and regular income via interest payments.
U.S. Treasury bonds are generally more stable than stocks in the short term, but this lower risk typically translates to lower returns, as noted above. Treasury securities, such as government bonds, notes and bills, are virtually risk-free, as the U.S. government backs these instruments.
The table on the right shows that bond prices often recover within 8 to 12 months. Unnerved investors that are selling their bond funds risk missing out when bond returns recover.
| Rank | Fund | Yield |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares (VWEHX) | 6.40% |
| 2 | T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund (PRHYX) | 7.02% |
| 3 | PGIM High Yield Fund Class A (PBHAX) | 7.22% |
| 4 | Fidelity Capital & Income Fund (fa*gIX) | 6.16% |
For the quarter, the typical intermediate core bond fund gained 6.5%, while the typical ultrashort bond and short-term bond funds increased 1.8% and 3.4%, respectively.
Bonds are a type of fixed-income investment. You can make money on a bond from interest payments and by selling it for more than you paid. You can lose money on a bond if you sell it for less than you paid or the issuer defaults on their payments.
Treasuries are generally considered"risk-free" since the federal government guarantees them and has never (yet) defaulted. These government bonds are often best for investors seeking a safe haven for their money, particularly during volatile market periods. They offer high liquidity due to an active secondary market.
By Lacey Cobb, CFA, CFP® For many investors, investing in the right bond funds can be a better option than holding a portfolio of individual bonds. Bond ETFs can provide better diversification — often for a lower cost — can offer higher liquidity, and can be easier to implement.
Bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions, so when interest rates fall, the value of fixed income investments rises, and when interest rates go up, bond prices fall in value.
Why are bonds selling off?
Most likely it's a simply question of supply and demand. There are more bonds for sale. The Treasury announced its predicted borrowing needs through next year that must cover larger deficits, weaker tax revenues and higher debt servicing costs.
Bond funds offer efficient diversification, allowing investors to spread risk across multiple bonds, enhancing portfolio stability. Types of bond funds range from safer options like U.S. Treasury to riskier ones like junk bonds, catering to various risk appetites.
After 20 years, the Patriot Bond is guaranteed to be worth at least face value. So a $50 Patriot Bond, which was bought for $25, will be worth at least $50 after 20 years. It can continue to accrue interest for as many as 10 more years after that.
Series EE savings bonds are a low-risk way to save money. They earn interest regularly for 30 years (or until you cash them if you do that before 30 years). For EE bonds you buy now, we guarantee that the bond will double in value in 20 years, even if we have to add money at 20 years to make that happen.
EE Bond and I Bond Differences
The interest rate on EE bonds is fixed for at least the first 20 years, while I bonds offer rates that are adjusted twice a year to protect from inflation. EE bonds offer a guaranteed return that doubles your investment if held for 20 years. There is no guaranteed return with I bonds.
