Will interest rates stay high in 2024?
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid- to low-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
While McBride had expected mortgage rates to fall to 5.75 percent by late 2024, the new economic reality means they're likely to hover in the range of 6.25 percent to 6.4 percent by the end of the year, he says.
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.
Interest rate futures currently imply a terminal rate of 3.7% by the end of 2026, a good bit higher than the Fed's projected 3.1% over the same time horizon, never mind the long-run neutral view of 2.6%.
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid- to low-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."
Beyond the 35 percent of economists who expect rates to stay high through the end of 2026, 1 in 4 economists (24 percent) see rates holding above 2.5 percent until the end of 2025, while a smaller share (12 percent) see rates sticking at a restrictive level until the end of 2027 or later.
Plus, if rates decline over the next two years, it means you can then move onto a new rate once your deal ends. Fixing your mortgage for 5 years can give you certainty over a longer period of time, which can be better if you plan on staying in the property for a long time.
How high could mortgage rates go by 2025?
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Friday is 6.91%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.
Driving the news: The median Fed official now expects interest rates to be somewhat higher in 2025 and 2026 than they did in December — anticipating fewer rate cuts will be justified in the coming two years. The median projection for the longer-run rate also ticked up, to 2.6% from 2.5%.
| Name | 2026 | Preceding Period |
|---|---|---|
| Federal funds rate | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| CENTRAL TENDENCY LOW | ||
| Change in real GDP | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment rate | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Futures indicate that short-term interest rates will bottom out at about 3.75% in 2027, while the median forecast among members of the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee is 2.6% — more than 100 basis points lower.
Interest Rates for 2021 to 2027. CBO projects that the interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes will average 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during the 2021–2027 period. The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent.
Importantly, the SEP projects that the Federal Funds rate will fall to 4.6% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025, and 3.1% in 2026. This implies three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. We are therefore lowering our Fed Funds forecast to four 25 bps cuts this year and another four 25 bps cuts in 2025.
The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they're not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.
Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
Legally, there isn't a limit on how many times you can refinance your home loan. However, mortgage lenders do have a few mortgage refinance requirements you'll need to meet each time you apply for a loan, and some special considerations are important to note if you want a cash-out refinance.
What is the prime rate in 2024?
| Instruments | 2024 Apr 19 | 2024 Apr 22 |
|---|---|---|
| Bank prime loan 2 3 7 | 8.50 | 8.50 |
| Discount window primary credit 2 8 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| U.S. government securities | ||
| Treasury bills (secondary market) 3 4 |
These futures can also be short-term or long-term. Short-term interest rate futures have an underlying instrument with a maturity of less than one year, while long-term interest rate futures have an underlying instrument with a maturity of over one year.
When the Prime Rate is high, borrowing money is more expensive. This causes increased interest rates and lower spending. This also effectively lowers inflation. This is why the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2022, to fight rising inflation.
When interest rates are rising, both businesses and consumers will cut back on spending. This will cause earnings to fall and stock prices to drop. On the other hand, when interest rates have fallen significantly, consumers and businesses will increase spending, causing stock prices to rise.
Lower Auto Loan Rates Could Make 2024 a Good Time To Buy or Refinance. While market predictions are bullish on the funds rate — and by extension, auto loan rates — finally coming back down in 2024, it's still not a guarantee. Powell and others at the Fed remain committed to their target of 2% inflation.
