Are bond funds safe in a market crash?
Bonds can perform well in a recession as investors tend to flock to bonds rather than stocks in times of economic downturns. This is because stocks are riskier as they are more volatile when markets are not doing well.
In a recession, investors often turn to bonds, particularly government bonds, as safer investments. The shift from stocks to bonds can increase bond prices, reduce portfolio volatility, and provide a predictable income. However, drawbacks include lower yield potential, default risks, and interest rate risks.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
Risk: Bonds are generally thought to be lower risk than stocks, though neither asset class is risk-free. “Bondholders are higher in the pecking order than stockholders, so if the company goes bankrupt, bondholders get their money back before stockholders,” Wacek says.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
If an investor is looking for reliable income, now can be a good time to consider investment-grade bonds. If an investor is looking to diversify their portfolio, they should consider a medium-term investment-grade bond fund which could benefit if and when the Fed pivots from raising interest rates.
Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Cash equivalents include short-term, highly liquid assets with minimal risk, such as Treasury bills, money market funds and certificates of deposit. Money market funds and high-yield savings are also places to salt away cash in a downturn.
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.)
Should I invest in bonds or CDs?
CDs are an excellent place to park your cash and earn interest on your balance. Although there's a risk of inflation outpacing CD interest rates, they are virtually guaranteed earnings. Bonds, on the other hand, may deliver higher returns and regular income via interest payments.
Ultimately, holding bonds in a portfolio can help with diversification. Often, portfolio solutions (investments made up of carefully selected and managed mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds) will include a fixed income component depending on how much risk you're comfortable with or when you will need your money.
Treasuries are generally considered"risk-free" since the federal government guarantees them and has never (yet) defaulted. These government bonds are often best for investors seeking a safe haven for their money, particularly during volatile market periods. They offer high liquidity due to an active secondary market.
Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds
U.S. Treasury securities are considered to be about the safest investments on earth. That's because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Government bonds offer fixed terms and fixed interest rates.
Given the numerous reasons a company's business can decline, stocks are typically riskier than bonds. However, with that higher risk can come higher returns. The market's average annual return is about 10%, not accounting for inflation.
| Best Ultrashort Bond Index Funds | Ticker | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Ultra-ST Bond Admiral | VUSFX | Bloomberg US Aggregate |
| Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Yr ETF | GBIL | FTSE US Treasury 0-1 Year Composite |
| SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | BIL | Bloomberg US Treasury Bill 1-3 Month |
| iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF | SHV | ICE US Treasury 4PM |
The answer is both yes and no, depending on why you're investing. Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market.
During a bear market environment, bonds are typically viewed as safe investments. That's because when stock prices fall, bond prices tend to rise. When a bear market goes hand in hand with a recession, it's typical to see bond prices increasing and yields falling just before the recession reaches its deepest point.
Despite Treasuries' recent rally, yields remain very compelling, with the US 10-year Treasury now yielding 3.9%. For bond investors, these conditions are nearly ideal. After all, most of a bond's return over time comes from its yield. And falling yields—which we expect in the latter half of 2024—boost bond prices.
MBA: Rates Will Decline to 6.1% In its March Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.8% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.1% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the first quarter of 2025.
Why are bonds selling off?
Most likely it's a simply question of supply and demand. There are more bonds for sale. The Treasury announced its predicted borrowing needs through next year that must cover larger deficits, weaker tax revenues and higher debt servicing costs.
The table on the right shows that bond prices often recover within 8 to 12 months. Unnerved investors that are selling their bond funds risk missing out when bond returns recover. It is important to acknowledge that some of those strong recoveries were helped by bond yields that were higher than they are today.
The disadvantages of bond funds include higher management fees, the uncertainty created with tax bills, and exposure to interest rate changes.
The downside to owning bond funds is: The management fee: Management fees for the more actively traded bond funds can be higher, which may lead to lower returns.
Where is your money safest during a recession? Many investors turn to conservative asset classes such as bonds during recessionary periods. Mutual funds may also be a useful area to consider, and so may established, large-cap companies with strong balance sheets and cash flow.
