Should I just buy bonds?
We suggest investors consider high-quality, intermediate- or long-term bond investments rather than sitting in cash or other short-term bond investments. With the Fed likely to cut rates soon, we don't want investors caught off guard when the yields on short-term investments likely decline as well.
If you're the risk-averse type who truly can't bear the thought of losing money, bonds might be a more suitable investment for you than stocks. If you're heavily invested in stocks, bonds are a good way to diversify your portfolio and protect yourself from market volatility.
Yields Might Not Keep Up With Inflation
Bondholders also need to consider inflation risk—the risk that rising prices will decrease the value of the fixed income you receive from the bond.
Bond returns have consistently exceeded the returns of cash and cash equivalents. From 2008-2022, bonds outperformed cash by a 2.1% annual average. While 2022 was the worst-performing year in the modern history of the bond market, the year's results failed to offset the outperformance of the preceding 15 years.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
Stocks are probably the most powerful wealth-building tool the average person can buy. However, it can be really hard to pick the winners, and if you're only investing $100 (or even less) at a time, it might not be worth the time and effort to choose individual stocks. This is where stock index funds come in.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Holding bond funds for shorter periods than that opens you to the risk of further, short-term gyrations in your fund's value, without sufficient time for recovery. And if you buy longer-term individual bonds and have to sell them, you risk the kinds of losses that investors have been experiencing lately.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
Should I move my 401k to bonds?
Bottom Line
Moving 401(k) assets into bonds could make sense if you're closer to retirement age or you're generally a more conservative investor overall. However, doing so could potentially cost you growth in your portfolio over time.
Over the past 40 years, bonds have averaged a 6.4% annual return—about 1.5 times the 4.1% return of cash. Bonds have also been consistent outperformers: In the 433 months from January 1986 to April 2022, bonds had a better 5-year return in all but 10 periods—a 98% success rate (Exhibit 4).
Stocks offer an opportunity for higher long-term returns compared with bonds but come with greater risk.
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Bonds with shorter times to maturity are less sensitive to changes in interest rates than longer-term bonds, meaning investors won't suffer as much if rates head higher. Remember, interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions, so as rates rise, bond prices fall and vice versa.
Reinvest Your Payments
The truth is that most investors won't have the money to generate $1,000 per month in dividends; not at first, anyway. Even if you find a market-beating series of investments that average 3% annual yield, you would still need $400,000 in up-front capital to hit your targets. And that's okay.
Investing $100 per month, with an average return rate of 10%, will yield $200,000 after 30 years. Due to compound interest, your investment will yield $535,000 after 40 years. These numbers can grow exponentially with an extra $100. If you make a monthly investment of $200, your 30-year yield will be close to $400,000.
Investing as little as $200 a month can, if you do it consistently and invest wisely, turn into more than $150,000 in as soon as 20 years. If you keep contributing the same amount for another 20 years while generating the same average annual return on your investments, you could have more than $1.2 million.
CDs are an excellent place to park your cash and earn interest on your balance. Although there's a risk of inflation outpacing CD interest rates, they are virtually guaranteed earnings. Bonds, on the other hand, may deliver higher returns and regular income via interest payments.
What is the best government bond to buy?
- Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW)
- Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS)
- DoubleLine Commercial Real Estate ETF (DCRE)
- Global X 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (CLIP)
- SPDR Portfolio Corporate Bond ETF (SPBO)
- JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST)
- iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)
- iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)
Traditionally, the answer has been that bonds provide diversification and income. They zig when stocks zag, providing income for spending needs. In finance terms, bonds have “low correlation” levels to stocks, and adding them to a portfolio would help to reduce the overall portfolio risk.
After 20 years, the Patriot Bond is guaranteed to be worth at least face value. So a $50 Patriot Bond, which was bought for $25, will be worth at least $50 after 20 years. It can continue to accrue interest for as many as 10 more years after that.
Series EE savings bonds are a low-risk way to save money. They earn interest regularly for 30 years (or until you cash them if you do that before 30 years). For EE bonds you buy now, we guarantee that the bond will double in value in 20 years, even if we have to add money at 20 years to make that happen.
U.S. Savings Bonds mature after 20 or 30 years, depending on the type of bond: Series EE bonds mature after 20 years. They are sold at half their face value and are worth their full value at maturity.
